Paducah NWS Discussions

Forecast Discussion for PAH NWS Office
000
FXUS63 KPAH 011129
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

With light precipitation having moved outside of the forecast
area, the remaining overnight hours will have high clouds and
winds below 10 mph with temperatures dropping to the mid teens to
near 20. Lingering road impacts from icy conditions are covered in
a Special Weather Statement through the early morning hours.

High pressure moves through just north of the Quad State this
morning, keeping conditions dry through the day with light winds.
Despite partial clearing, temperatures will again struggle to
reach freezing as many surfaces remain ice covered. High
temperatures are likely to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s,
towards the low end of the model range, which would be a similar
result to yesterday.

Our last round of frozen precipitation for the week begins this
evening in areas bordering Arkansas and far Western Tennessee.
Moisture streams northeastward from the base of the trough that
progresses eastward into Texas. An increasing proportion of models
keep precipitation just outside the Quad State so PoPs remain
limited to the slight chance to chance range. A few models stream
an area of very light precipitation further north into the Quad
State (NAM, GFS, and FV3) but most limit precipitation to the
first couple rows of counties north of AR/TN. With precip amounts
below a tenth of an inch, the choice was made to refrain from
issuing a headline at this time with the SPS/Advisory decision
likely held off on until the day. Remaining precipitation moves
out of the Quad State by the end of the day Thursday. Forecast
highs Thursday were shifted towards the 25th percentile, which is
still at least several degrees above freezing, so a transition to
drizzle rather than freezing drizzle is likely, along with some
melting of surfaces. However, full clearing of roads and
sidewalks is unlikely to occur in all areas so partial refreezing
Thursday night is possible as lows drop to the upper teens to
lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

Friday will be very chilly, then a nice warm up is forecast through
the weekend and into next week. A chance of rain returns early
Tuesday.

Northwest flow aloft will allow Arctic surface high pressure to
surge across the Quad State Friday. It will be sunny for the first
time in nearly a week, but highs will only be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Gusty north winds will diminish through the day, but wind
chills will not climb much above 20 degrees. The surface high will
quickly build to the east of the area Friday night, allowing south
winds to develop by sunrise. Lows may dip just below 20 degrees, but
then the warm up is on through the weekend.

By Saturday the flow aloft will be nearly zonal, and a weak
disturbance will bring an increase in clouds, but no rain to the
region Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday should
climb to near normal levels in the low to mid 40s, and Sunday should
see low to mid 50s throughout the Quad State.

Looking at next week, the 00Z guidance agrees that south winds will
crank up on Monday as troughing develops into the Plains. The 00Z
guidance brings a significant trough through the region with a
decent chance of rain at some point Tuesday into Wednesday. There is
some potential for a split flow to develop and the models cannot
agree on which flow will have the most significant troughing or
whether the two streams will come into phase creating a more
substantial system. For now the NBM has chance PoPs Tuesday through
Wednesday to account for all possibilities in timing. With time the
forecast should evolve into a 12-18 hour period of higher PoPs.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

Primarily VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Winds out of the N/NE around 5 kts will become light late in the
day. Most terminals have high clouds that will decrease in
coverage some during the day then increase and lower after sunset.
Sites near Arkansas or Tennessee will see periods of MVFR cigs,
possibly lower depending on how far north freezing drizzle reaches
overnight tonight. For now, FZDZ is left out of TAF terminals,
along with MVFR cigs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
SHORT TERM...ATL
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...ATL

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