Paducah NWS Discussions

Forecast Discussion for PAH NWS Office
000
FXUS63 KPAH 301835
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
135 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Across the southeastern half of the CWA the soup has returned in
full force. Dewpoints range from the mid 60s to low 70s and that
airmass will have overspread the entire quad-state region by this
evening. Watching cumulus clouds bubble up over the area with a
few thunderstorms popping over middle Tennessee. Expecting
isolated to scattered activity along and south of a line roughly
from Poplar Bluff to Evansville over the next few hours, with the
best chances around Hopkinsville/Ft. Campbell. That activity
should taper off early this evening.

Friday a surface front begins working closer to the region. Expect
afternoon thunderstorm coverage to be a little better. Areas that
stay dry will see heat indicies approaching 100 in the peak of the
daytime heating. The best coverage of activity should be on
Saturday as the front stalls over the region. More numerous
showers and thunderstorms seem to be in the offing during that
period, but again activity should begin to wane once the sun goes
down.

Will have to mointor for pulse severe storms (wind) each
afternoon given the available MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and
sfc-700 mb theta-e differences around 30C. But with shaer values
almost nil organized/longer lasting cells and severe weather are
unlikely. Cloud to ground lightning will probably be the biggest
threat given the holiday weekend and outdoor activities. Brief
heavy rain will also be possible, particularly on Saturday with
higher coverage and PWAT values approaching 1.9". As mentioned
before heat indicies will also approach 100 degrees at peak
heating.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

The still advertised frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary
this weekend, eventually returning to the north as a warm front or
at least warm sectoring the air mass. Its presence will offer subtle
low level convergence that will help focus the heat/humidity from
the also still advertised building dome of high pressure, resulting
in daily chances of showers and storms. Cluster analysis supports
said high pressure strengthening as 24 hour 500 MB heights/anomalies
continue their bullseye within the ridging pattern. As this occurs,
both temperatures and dew points swell, with the NAEFS ESAT painting
1.75-2.00" PW`s across the FA, which pushes upward to max climo
percentile and close to 2 SD`s above the norm. Generally weak winds
aloft under the strengthening ridge will make locally heavy rains
the main storm hazard during the heat of the day, which is when the
best pops will be daily as they maintain an inhale/exhale theme per
this time of year. Of course lightning and maybe an isolated wind
gust will also be possible hazards.

The daily storm chances offers about the only relief to what will
also be a return to heat indices reaching near or into the triple
digits each day. This may ultimately turn into duration headlines at
some point , with both the 1-2 week and 3-4 week outlooks showing
little offset to our above normal temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at  1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Light south to southwest winds expected through the afternoon,
easing overnight. Watching for some cu and isolated to scattered
thunder mainly along and east of a line from Paducah to Evansville
this afternoon, but chances too low for TAF mention. Prevailing
VFR expected otherwise through the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JGG
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JGG

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion

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