Storm Prediction Center Discussion
SPC MD 122
MD 0122 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXASMesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 010750Z - 011245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain showers with rates in excess of 0.1-0.15 in/hr are ongoing and are likely to continue overnight. DISCUSSION...As of 0745 UTC, regional radar analysis showed intensifying freezing rain showers across portions of southern and central TX. Driven primarily by low and mid-level warm advection, these showers have intensified over the last 90 minutes coincident with surface temperatures falling to near or below freezing. Recent reports of freezing rain in the San Antonio Metro and I-35 corridor suggest freezing precipitation rates have increased to near 0.1-0.15 in/hr with the more intense showers. While the heaviest precipitation will be intermittent, additional development farther southwest, evident from new radar echos and hi-res guidance, suggests multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy freezing rain are likely through early this morning. As additional showers develop and shift northeastward with time, slightly cooler surface temperatures in the upper 20s F may favor more efficient ice accretion and some potential for sleet. With multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy winter precipitation expected, there exists the potential for significant icing impacts along the I-35 corridor in central TX through early this morning. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29289967 30369924 31239848 31579803 31669754 31299680 30589630 29949688 29099788 28939862 28989929 29289967Read more
SPC MD 121
MD 0121 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend into the western Hill Country Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 010626Z - 011230Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to gradually intensify overnight tonight as it slowly spread north and eastward. Freezing rain rates may approach 0.05-0.1 in/hr, at times, within heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, regional radar and IR satellite imagery have shown a gradual intensification of a band of clouds/light precipitation across portions of the TX Big Bend and Rio Grand Valley. Associated with increasing ascent ahead of a broad upper low centered over Baja California, precipitation should gradually increase in coverage and intensity overnight as the low shifts eastward. Surface observations across portions of west TX show surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F within the shallow Arctic airmass. Mid-levels remain somewhat dry as indicated by the 00z DRT sounding, but subtle surface dewpoint rises over the last few hours indicate slow saturation of the low and mid-levels is occurring. As broad ascent continues to intensify ahead of the upper low, precipitation should gradually spread north and eastward with rates potentially intensifying to 0.05-0.1 in/hr within banded structures. Hi-res guidance suggests the greatest freezing rain rates will remain south of I-10 for the next few hours hours where low and mid-levels are more saturated. Freezing precipitation should eventually spread north of I-10 and into the western Hill country between 8-10z. With rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr possible at times, there exists the potential for significant icing. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30440391 31750243 32620135 32940021 32679946 31959909 31269915 30679957 30060055 29820103 29670155 29730228 29320272 28870311 28850340 28960383 29040392 29340436 29440441 30440391Read more